Risks PV & Wind

transform risk into opportunities

What is it about?

EnergyWeather calculates solar power forecasts for each individual weather model (“poor man’s ensemble”) and presents their differences spatially in maps as well as in time series.

Why do we do this?

The Energy Weather risk products have emerged from the increasing difficulty of making money by managing directly marketed portfolios due to the dominance of a single weather provider, or in trader’s speech: “They all want to pass the same door at the same time”.

What is your benefit of this?

  • Early detection of deviations during fronts
  • Frequently correct detection of fog. Reason: Some models are able to display fog quite well, others not at all. The resulting prognosis shows precisely these risky regions.

=> Distinguish certain from uncertain forecasts in advance and adjust your position before the dominant weather provider’s updates move the market!

Example Intraday PV forecasts 1.2.17 for 13:00:

PV risk

What exactly is provided?

  • Maps for Intraday and Day ahead with hourly recalculation
  • Parameters: PV feed-in quantities, wind power, sum of these two values
  • Map display can be selected in percentage of capacity or in MW (using PV&Wind catasters)
  • Spread width of model uncertainty in maps and time series
  • Most likely performance curve as well as location and direction of potentially differing regions (right-hand map)
  • Representation of spread development by time series histories (bottom right)

Is there a possibility for individualization?

Yes.
Particularly in the case of an own direct marketing portfolio, the ratio between the utilization of the installed capacity and that of the installed capacity in Germany can create opportunities. We are also capable of integrating live data / measurements from your plants and thus enable you to gain a better analysis basis for your positions at a glance.