Energy Weather renewable forecasts

the one with physics

The Energy Weather renewable forecasts are the core product from our highly flexible weather prediction system.

It combines a physically based calculation basis with the mix of the best weather models. A complete database of all registered wind farms and photovoltaic plants in Europe enables flexible and individualised forecasts for every conceivable application, from individual sites to the nationwide production sum, from intraday forecasts to the 10th forecast day.

An ingenious technical infrastructure supports the provision of the data in any desired format and thus without any customer-specific integration effort.

Application fields

  • Direct marketing of electricity
  • Transmission network operator / distribution network operator
  • Energy supply companies / Stadtwerke
  • Individual systems for optimizing self-consumption

Benefit for the customer

  • Early planning of production quantities
  • Reduction of schedule deviations
  • Proprietary trading opportunity

Key features

Maximum flexibility. Our database includes each single wind and solar plant in Europe, which enables us to deliver comparable quality from single metering point forecasts to direct marketing via distribution networks up to nation-wide prognosis.

Physical Basis. Unique methodology for calculating the generation potential for each day and hour per year. For example in solar forecasting, the highest position of the sun at the beginning of summer does not correspond to the highest extraterrestrial radiation, which in turn does not coincide with the highest irradiance on the ground during the year. According to this maximum power – assuming normal temperature under a cloudless sky – the data of the weather models are taken into account and put into relation.

Model mix. We use a mix of the best weather models per forecast horizon. Both the world’s best high-resolution weather model with regard to cloud parameterization as well as the leading global models are taken into account. Forecasts for the latter forecast horizon are supported by ensemble models, as their uncertainty range also gives indication towards forecast reliability.

Temporal resolution. We can provide you with forecast values ​in 15-minute resolution up to 10 days in advance with an update frequency that is highly flexible to fit your requirements.

Probabilistic marking of uncertainties. Weather forecasts over a longer period of time are, of course, associated with uncertainties, which also applies in particular to the prognosis of solar plants. We meet this challenge by explicitly naming the uncertainty area. This enables us to create sufficiently accurate predictions along with their probability of occurrence.

Independence of observation data. The key feature of our award-winning methodology is the usage of a complex calculation core based on physics. By combining this calculation with the individual characteristics of the photovoltaic system, we are able to generate accurate forecasts – independent of feed-in values ​​and other observational data.

System security. Our systems are redundant and monitored to ensure maximum availability.

Credentials

  • Basis for weather-related strategies in AutoTRADER by VisoTech
  • Maximum customer satisfaction among various transmission network operators, direct marketing companies, energy trading houses and private weather services
  • Winner of so far only academic contest Energy Weather Award in the category “Best Solar Power Forecast”

Service

  • Support for integration into existing market pricing models and analytical environments
  • Consultation on meteorological volatilities of the PV electricity generation (climatology, maximum values ​​etc)