- Outlook beyond weather model’s horizon from 2nd frontweek through frontmonth
- Analysis of teleconnections, singularities and analogues
- Denotation of relevant weather developments and statements on weather-related market reactions
- Provided by Mike Rosin (known for longterm forecasts in the “Wetterzentrale”) and Robin Girmes (Energymeteorologist for 10 years, several years trader of power and weather derivatives)
Why this product?
Meteorologists are often confronted with the wish to state their opinion on weather development beyond the model’s horizon in giving concrete advices to energy traders.
It is difficult to fulfill such expectations, since this is not taught by any university and there is currently no independent, regular weather forecast for Europe. Take advantage of our weather forecast, it is not only useful as a second opinion for energy meteorologists within the trading houses, but also provides a direct derivation of the most likely price effects for traders.
What content can be expected?
The Energy Weather weather forecast consists of two parts:
- A thorough analysis of the current state of circulation as well as the respective effective teleconnections with subsequent classification into comparable historical developments (analogues) as well as typical seasonal weather conditions (singularities). This is intended to enable energy meteorologists and experienced analysts / traders to have an independent second opinion.
- The interpretation of the expected weather and its most likely alternative solution to the price development of the most important European electricity and gas markets taking into account the respective fundamental conditions (anomalies of power plant availability, reservoir levels, generation cost structure).
What qualifies us for this kind of forecast?
A unique combination of personal skills and experiences.
On the one hand, this consists of a highly skilled synoptic who regularly produced weather forecasts in the “Wetterzentrale” for many years and achieved an incredibly high success rate with regard to the predictions – Mike Rosin.
On the other hand, an energy trading meteorologist who earned money on the very illiquid market for weather derivatives on the basis of his long-term forecasts – Robin Girmes.
Now with his own company and the daily consulting of several large energy trading houses, Robin Girmes has over ten years of experience in translating trends from weather models into their price-based world and takes the perspective of different groups of market participants. As a result a transfer of weather conditions into price development is possible and can be formulated briefly and precisely as proved in our product “longterm weather”.
The result of these unique skills should not be missed and also be included in your trading decisions!