Energy Weather PV Forecasts

The one with physics

The Energy Weather PV forecast is a highly flexible prediction system for solar power prognoses, awarded the Energy Weather Award 2015 in the category “Best Solar Power Prognosis”

It combines a physically based calculation basis for the radiation path with the mix of the currently best weather models. A complete database of all registered photovoltaic plants in Germany enables flexible and individualized forecasts for every conceivable application, from individual plants to the nationwide production sum, from intraday forecasts to the 10th forecast day.

An ingenious technical infrastructure supports the provision of the data in any desired format and thus without any customer-specific integration effort.

Application areas

  • Transmission network operator / distribution network operator
  • Energy supply companies / Stadtwerke
  • Direct marketing of electricity from PV production
  • Individual systems for optimizing self-consumption

Benefit for the customer

  • Early planning of production quantities
  • Reduction of schedule deviations
  • Proprietary trading facility

Key features

Maximum flexibility. Our database includes every single PV plant in Germany, which enables us to deliver comparable quality from single prognoses to direct marketing via distribution networks up to Germany-wide prognosis.

Physical Basis. Unique methodology for calculating the generation potential for each day and hour per year. For example the highest position of the sun at the beginning of summer does not correspond to the highest extraterrestrial radiation, which in turn does not coincide with the highest irradiance on the ground during the year. According to this maximum power – assuming the whole of Germany is at normal temperature under a cloudless sky – the data of the weather models are taken into account and put into relation.

Model mix. We use a mix of the best weather models per forecast horizon. Both the world’s best high-resolution weather model with regard to cloud parameterization as well as the leading global models including their ensembles are taken into account, the latter especially in the case of longer forecast horizons.

Temporal resolution. We can provide you with forecast values ​in 15-minute resolution up to 10 days in advance with an update frequency that is highly flexible to fit your requirements.

Probabilistic marking of uncertainties. Weather forecasts over a longer period of time are, of course, associated with uncertainties, which also applies in particular to the prognosis of solar plants. We meet this challenge by explicitly naming the uncertainty area. This enables us to create sufficiently accurate predictions along with their probability of occurrence.

Independence of observation data. The key feature of our award-winning methodology is the usage of a complex calculation core based on physics. By combining this calculation with the individual characteristics of the photovoltaic system, we are able to generate accurate forecasts – independent of feed-in values ​​and other observational data.

System security. Our systems are redundant and monitored to ensure maximum availability.

Credentials

  • Winner Energy Weather Award 2015 in the category “Best Solar Power Forecast” (evaluation period Nov13-Nov14)
  • Maximum customer satisfaction among various transmission network operators, direct marketing companies, energy trading houses and private weather services

Service

  • Support for integration into existing market pricing models and analytical environments
  • Consultation on meteorological volatilities of the PV electricity generation (climatology, maximum values ​​etc)